It's a race, sort of, to see which — if either — tropical disturbance in the Atlantic basin will become the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems: Invest 90L and a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the center'slatest tropical outlook.
Invest 90L, which brought a deluge of rain — especially to Southwest and South Florida — is now off the southeastern coast of the U.S.
As it continues to move northeast farther into the Atlantic, it's possible it could run into conditions and become the season's first tropical storm, Alberto, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist atWeatherTiger.
Elsewhere, an area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. National Hurricane forecasters give the system a 50 percent chance of becoming the season's first tropical depression.
"The ingredients are in place for tropical development across the southern Gulf of Mexico," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. "These ingredients include light winds and very warm water."
There will be a small window for a tropical system to form.
"The main limiting factor for development will be the close proximity to land and limited time over water," Douty said. "Despite these limitations, it looks increasingly likely that a tropical depression or storm can develop."
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring two tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean. Another is expected to move off the coast of Africa in the coming days.
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Will Invest 90L become Alberto, first named storm of 2024 hurricane season?
"Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of the Florida peninsula through Saturday," according to the National Hurricane Center.
"As it accelerates out-to-sea, apparent wind shear will diminish, and a thermodynamic boost from the Gulf Stream may help the low snag the name Alberto," according to Truchelut, who works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
"However, even if it does become the first named storm of 2024, there will be no further impacts on land," Truchelut said.
Florida hit by record rainfall as Invest 90L crossed state
Some areas saw morethan 20 inches of rain in 24 hours as Invest 90L moved across the state, according to AccuWeather.
The deluge prompted Gov. Ron DeSantis Wednesday evening to declare a "major state of emergency" for Broward, Collier, Lee, Miami-Dade and Sarasota counties.
➤ What parts of Florida flooded? Here are the five counties under a state of emergency, photos
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. Friday, June 14:
Hurricane season 2024: What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 90L: Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast is moving northeastward into the open Atlantic.
This system is expected to merge with with a front over the weekend, and the chances of tropical cyclone development are decreasing.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of the Florida peninsula through Saturday.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Tropical disturbance: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly west orwest-northwest.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.
The National Hurricane Center is also keeping an eye on two tropical waves:
- Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. It's moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
- Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the Caribbean is moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Invest 90L is forecast to continue bringing heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula through Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical moisture preceding any tropical development of the system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach across eastern Mexico and even north into Texas and Louisiana as early as Sunday, according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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